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Affiliation |
Faculty of Agriculture Department of Forest and Environmental Sciences |
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Associate Professor |
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Related SDGs |
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SHINOHARA Yoshinori
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Research Areas 【 display / non-display 】
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Social Infrastructure (Civil Engineering, Architecture, Disaster Prevention) / Disaster prevention engineering
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Life Science / Forest science
Papers 【 display / non-display 】
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Changes in the factors contributing to the reduction of landslide fatalities between 1945 and 2019 in Japan. Reviewed International journal
Yoshinori Shinohara, Tomonori Kume
The Science of the total environment 827 154392 - 154392 2022.6
Authorship：Lead author, Corresponding author Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)
Landslides are natural hazards that cause severe damage and human losses. Japan has succeeded in reducing the number of landslide fatalities and is one of the few countries with long-term databases of landslide fatalities. In this study, we identified the factors that contributed to the decrease in fatalities associated with rainfall-triggered landslides in Japan between 1945 and 2019. We examined trends in landslide fatalities and six factors for Periods I, II, III, IV, and V-each period spans 15 years of the study period-and for Periods I-II, II-III, III-IV, and IV-V. We examined the trends in the number of landslides (NL) and in the ratio between the number of fatalities (NF) and the number of landslides (NF/NL), and considered fatalities as the product of the number of landslides and the probability of fatalities. The number of fatalities decreased continuously between Periods I and IV; the rate of the decrease declined over time. During Period I-II, NF/NL decreased, whereas NL remained unchanged. Decreases in the average number of household members, changes in building structure, and increases in the number of people evacuated may have contributed to the decrease in NF/NL. During Periods II-III and III-IV, NL also decreased. During Period II-III, the area of mature forests increased slowly. During Period III-IV, the implementation of structural measures (i.e., hard measures) was aggressively pursued. The factors that contributed to the decrease in landslide fatalities changed with time, suggesting that measures for reducing landslide fatalities changed according to the degree of maturity of the nation. Furthermore, we identified increases in rainfall and NL in Period V, which might indicate a future increase in landslide fatalities.
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Estimating Sediment Export over Two Decades Following a Volcanic Eruption: A Case Study at Mount Unzen, Japan Reviewed
PARK Ji-Hyeok, SHINOHARA Yoshinori, GOMEZ Christopher, HOTTA Norifumi
International Journal of Erosion Control Engineering 18 ( 1 ) 1 - 10 2025.3
Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：公益社団法人 砂防学会
Rainfall-triggered volcanic debris flows (VDFs) occur because of reduced infiltration capacity after a volcanic eruption and are the primary source of sediment export. Even after the infiltration capacity of volcanic slopes has recovered, VDFs can persist for several decades. However, no models have been developed to estimate long-term sediment export more than a decade after an eruption of any volcano. We developed generalized linear models to estimate sediment export (Se) over a long term in the Tansandani and Gokurakudani gullies at Mount Unzen, which erupted between 1990 and 1995. The variable Se, calculated using digital elevation models from 2003 to 2022, was set as the dependent variable. The rainfall index, decline indicator for sediment export, proxy of constant sediment supply, and gully difference were set as independent variables. In addition to 40 rainfall index patterns, we tried three decline indicators: the normalized difference vegetation index for the growing and non-growing seasons (Model 1a and 1b) and the cumulative dates (Model 2). Based on stepwise processes, the rainfall index and decline indicator were selected for all models. The gully difference was selected for Models 1b and 2. For all models, the estimated Se well followed the observed Se, although the estimation error was the smallest for Model 2, followed by Models 1b and 1a. Thus, we successfully estimated Se over two decades using easily obtainable variables. Further studies would be effective to confirm the broader applicability of our models.
DOI： 10.13101/ijece.18.1
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Machine Learning Reveals the Contrasting Roles of Rainfall and Canopy Structure Metrics on the Formation of Canopy Drip and Splash Throughfall Reviewed International coauthorship
Nanko K., Levia D.F., Iida S., Shinohara Y., Sakai N.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 130 ( 2 ) 2025.2
Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Throughfall is a significant majority of the total precipitation reaching the ground in forested areas. This study revealed biotic and abiotic factors influencing the throughfall generation process, with the throughfall partitioning into free throughfall, splash throughfall, and canopy drip created at foliar surface drip points (FSDPs) and occasional woody surface drip points (O-WSDPs), utilizing machine learning. Using a large-scale rainfall simulator, throughfall drops were simultaneously measured at 19 locations under a mix of deciduous and coniferous tree species in both foliated and unfoliated states. Random forest modeling showed that biotic factors, such as foliage amount, primarily affected the development and volume fraction of canopy drip in foliated trees. In contrast, for unfoliated trees, canopy drip volume fraction was mainly influenced by abiotic factors, including drop size and kinetic energy of open rainfall. The formation and volume fraction of splash throughfall were primarily influenced by abiotic factors for both foliated and unfoliated trees. From the comparison between the foliated and unfoliated states, the generation process of canopy drip was separately clarified between FSDPs and O-WSDPs. More and larger canopy drip was generated by more foliage with a more wetted canopy with less fluctuation at the FSDPs, whereas a less wetted canopy and/or higher drop impact energy generated more and larger canopy drip at O-WSDPs. This study underscores the importance of canopy structure and meteorological conditions in determining throughfall partitioning. The findings contribute to a nuanced understanding of rainwater redistribution in forest ecosystems.
DOI： 10.1029/2024JG008340
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Takagi M., Shinohara Y.
Journal of Forest Research 30 ( 1 ) 35 - 41 2025.2
Authorship：Last author Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：Journal of Forest Research
The interception of rainfall in conifer plantations has been intensively studied. However, research on broadleaved forests is limited, although the broadleaved forests dominate approximately half of forest area in Japan. Here, we compared the throughfall and stemflow of each vegetation layer to clarify interception in a naturally regenerated temperate evergreen broadleaved forest (lucidophyllous forest) and a Japanese cypress plantation over a three-year period. Both forests were approximately 100 years old and had abundant lower-layer vegetation. We found that approximately a quarter of rainfall was intercepted in both forests, although the half of that interception in the Japanese cypress plantation was owing to the abundant lower-layer vegetation. This indicated that the interception in the evergreen broadleaved forest was twice that of the Japanese cypress upper canopy. The well-developed layer structure in the evergreen broadleaved forest efficiently intercepted rainfall. From the point of view of water resource management, this study implies that both evergreen broadleaved forests and Japanese cypress plantations with abundant lower-layer vegetation can decrease the amount of water infiltrating soils.
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Miao Z., Gomez C., Shinohara Y., Hotta N.
Drones 9 ( 2 ) 2025.2
Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：Drones
Drone-mounted LiDAR systems have revolutionized forest mapping, but data quality is often compromised by occlusions caused by vegetation and terrain features. This study presents a novel framework for analyzing and predicting LiDAR occlusion patterns in forested environments, combining the geometric reconstruction of flight paths with the statistical modeling of ground visibility. Using field data collected at Unzen Volcano, Japan, we first developed an algorithm to retrieve drone flight paths from timestamped pointclouds, enabling post-processing optimization, even when original flight data are unavailable. We then created a mathematical model to quantify the shadow effects from obstacles and implemented Monte Carlo simulations to optimize flight parameters for different forest stand characteristics. The results demonstrate that lower-altitude flights (40 m) with narrow scanning angles achieve the highest ground visibility (81%) but require more flight paths, while higher-altitude flights with wider scanning angles offer efficient coverage (47% visibility) with single flight paths. For a forest stand with 250 trees per 25 hectares (heights 5–15 m), statistical analysis showed that scanning angles above 90 degrees consistently delivered 46–47% ground visibility, regardless of the flight height. This research provides quantitative guidance for optimizing drone LiDAR surveys in forested environments, though future work is needed to incorporate canopy complexity and seasonal variations.
Books 【 display / non-display 】
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森林水文学入門
篠原慶規（ Role： Contributor , 蒸発散）
朝倉書店 2022.9
Language：Japanese Book type：Textbook, survey, introduction
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森林学の百科事典
篠原 慶規（ Role： Joint author）
丸善出版 2021.1
Total pages：694 Responsible for pages：災害防止と保安林（第13章 森林と災害） Language：Japanese Book type：Dictionary, encyclopedia
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The necessity of sensor calibration for the precise measurement of water fluxes in forest ecosystems. IN Forest-Water Interactions
Shin'ichi Iida, Takanori Shimizu, Yoshinori Shinohara, Shin'ichi Takeuchi, Tomo'omi Kumagai（ Role： Joint author）
Springer Nature 2020.2
Total pages：643 Responsible for pages：519-536 Language：English Book type：Scholarly book
MISC 【 display / non-display 】
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Sediment disaster in Kurume, Fukuoka Prefecture and Karatsu, Saga Prefecture due to heavy rainfall in July 2023 Reviewed
SHIMIZU Osamu, JITOUSONO Takashi, SHUIN Yasuhiro, MIZUNO Hideaki, AKITA Hiromi, AMANO Yuichiro, UE Hirotaka, OISHI Hiroyuki, OKANO Kazuyuki, ONO Atsutoshi, KAGEYAMA Daisuke, KATOU Takuya, KIKUCHI Hideaki, KITOU Ken-ichi, KIHARA Saki, SATO Koji, SHINOHARA Yoshinori, TAGATA Satoshi, TAKEBAYASHI Hiroshi, CHIBA Miki, TORITA Eiji, NAKANO Koji, NISHIWAKI Ayato, HIRAKAWA Yasuyuki, FUKUIKE Takafumi, FUKUZUKA Kozaburou, HONDA Takeshi, HONDA Yasuaki, MITSUNAGA Kaito, YAMAKOSHI Takao, YAWATARI Gaku, YOSHINAGA Shiki, YOSHINO Takahiko
Journal of the Japan Society of Erosion Control Engineering 76 ( 4 ) 33 - 43 2023.11
Language：Japanese Publishing type：Rapid communication, short report, research note, etc. (scientific journal) Publisher：Japan Society of Erosion Control Engineering
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はげ山的水源涵養機能からの脱却
篠原 慶規
森林科学 98 ( 0 ) 41 - 41 2023.6
Authorship：Lead author Language：Japanese Publishing type：Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal) Publisher：日本森林学会
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The July 2020 Rainfall-Induced Sediment Disasters in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan
JITOUSONO Takashi, SHINOHARA Yoshinori, SHIMIZU Osamu, TAGATA Satoshi, TERAMOTO Yukiyoshi, TORITA Eiji, NAGATANI Naomasa, NAKANO Koji, NISHIWAKI Ayato, HIRAKAWA Yasuyuki, FUKUZUKA Kozaburou, IGURA Mari, MIZUNO Hideaki, UE Hirotaka, OHISHI Hiroyuki, KAKIMOTO Tsuyoshi, KITOU Ken-ichi, KOGA Syozo, SAKAI Yusuke, SAKASHIMA Toshihiko
砂防学会英文誌 13 ( 4 ) 93 - 100 2021.4
Language：English Publishing type：Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal) Publisher：公益社団法人 砂防学会
On July 4, 2020, heavy rainfall was observed in the southern part of Kumamoto Prefecture and the northern part of Kagoshima Prefecture. Due to heavy rainfall, floods and sediment disasters such as collapses and debris flows occurred predominantly in the Kuma River basin of Kumamoto Prefecture. We conducted field investigations at four sites in Ashikita Town and Tsunagi Town, Kumamoto Prefecture, where collapses and debris flows caused deaths. We also conducted field investigations in the Kawauchi River branch of the Kuma River, where vast amounts of sediment discharge caused damage to houses. The objectives of these investigations were to clarify the situation and mechanism of the disasters and to propose procedures to recover from the disasters. This report briefly summarizes the results of these investigations.
DOI： 10.13101/ijece.13.93
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Sediment disasters in Kumamoto Prefecture by a heavy rainfall in July 2020
JITOUSONO Takashi, SHINOHARA Yoshinori, SHIMIZU Osamu, TAGATA Satoshi, TERAMOTO Yukiyoshi, TORITA Eiji, NAGATANI Naomasa, NAKANO Koji, NISHIWAKI Ayato, HIRAKAWA Yasuyuki, FUKUZUKA Kozaburou, IGURA Mari, MIZUNO Hideaki, UE Hirotaka, OHISHI Hiroyuki, KAKIMOTO Tsuyoshi, KITOU Ken-ichi, KOGA Syozo, SAKAI Yusuke, SAKASHIMA Toshihiko
Journal of the Japan Society of Erosion Control Engineering 73 ( 4 ) 41 - 50 2020
Language：Japanese Publishing type：Rapid communication, short report, research note, etc. (scientific journal) Publisher：Japan Society of Erosion Control Engineering
On July 4, 2020, heavy rainfall was observed in the southern part of Kumamoto prefecture and the northern part of Kagoshima prefecture. Due to the heavy rainfall, floods and sediment disasters such as landslides and debris flows were occurred especially in the Kuma River basin of Kumamoto prefecture. We conducted field investigations at four sites in Ashikita-town and Tsunagi-town, Kumamoto prefecture, where landslides and/or debris flows caused deaths. We also conducted field investigations in the Kawauchi River branch of the Kuma River where huge amounts of sediment discharge caused damage to houses. The objectives of these investigations were to clarify the situation and mechanism of the disasters and to propose procedures to recover from the disasters. This report briefly summarizes the results in these investigations.
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Estimation of potential areas affected by large-scale sediment movements and disaster mitigations for the large-scale sediment movements Reviewed
70 ( 1 ) 20 - 30 2017.5
Language：Japanese Publishing type：Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal)
Presentations 【 display / non-display 】
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竹林の遮断蒸発はなぜ少ないのか？ －付着水分量の推定－
篠原慶規，木村健人
第136回 日本森林学会 大会 2025.3.22
Event date： 2025.3.20 - 2025.3.23
Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)
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海岸林前面における飛来塩分と付着塩分の測定
南光一樹，岩﨑健太，篠原慶規，新田響平，水永博己
日本海岸林学会
Event date： 2024.10
Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)
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日本における土砂災害の暴露人数の長期的変動
篠原慶規
砂防学会研究発表会
Event date： 2024.5
Language：Japanese Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)
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一ツ瀬川源流部における斜面崩壊発生後の植生回復の条件
竹内万結, 松永美月, 佐藤忠道, 執印康裕, 久米朋宣, 篠原慶規
砂防学会研究発表会
Event date： 2024.5
Language：Japanese Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)
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土砂災害発生時における生存確率の評価
友保満雄, 篠原慶規
砂防学会研究発表会
Event date： 2024.5
Language：Japanese Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)
Awards 【 display / non-display 】
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論文賞
2024.9 水文・水資源学会
篠原 慶規，久米 朋宣
Award type：Award from Japanese society, conference, symposium, etc.
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若手農林水産研究者表彰（農林水産技術会議会長賞）
2023.11 農林水産省 森林および竹林の水土保全機能に関する研究
篠原慶規
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日本森林学会奨励賞
2017.3 日本森林学会
篠原 慶規
Award type：Award from Japanese society, conference, symposium, etc. Country：Japan
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 【 display / non-display 】
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降雨は火山災害を激化させるのか：時系列データの統合・再構築に基づく山体変形解析
Grant number：23K17801 2023.04 - 2025.03
独立行政法人日本学術振興会 科学研究費補助金 基盤研究(C)
Authorship：Coinvestigator(s)
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森林から河川へ流出する炭素量は吸収量に対してどの程度の割合なのか？
Grant number：21H02238 2021.04 - 2024.03
独立行政法人日本学術振興会 科学研究費補助金 基盤研究(B)
高木 正博、
Authorship：Coinvestigator(s)
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土砂災害による死者数の時空間変動要因の解明
Grant number：21K04590 2021.04 - 2024.03
独立行政法人日本学術振興会 科学研究費補助金 基盤研究(C)
Authorship：Principal investigator
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地上計測とドローンを用いた高時空間分解能の森林蒸散量の推定
Grant number：18K14492 2018 - 2021.03
科学研究費補助金 若手研究(B)
Authorship：Principal investigator
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表層崩壊の危険性を評価する上で土壌水分の空間的不均一性は考慮する必要があるのか？
Grant number：25850109 2013.04 - 2016.03
科学研究費補助金 若手研究(B)